Renton, WA— Wednesday morning, the Renton Chamber of Commerce held its 2026 Economic Forecast at the GenCare Lifestyle building. The event was sponsored by the City of Renton, the Port of Seattle, Puget Sound Energy, and GenCare Lifestyle. By 9 a.m., the room was full — name tags on, plates filling up, and plenty of conversation already underway.
Chamber CEO and President Diane Dobson opened the morning by welcoming Puget Sound Energy, who shared details on their Flex Business program. The program offers discounts to businesses that cut back on energy use during peak demand periods and weather events. Then Dobson introduced the morning’s main speaker: Matthew Gardner, economist and principal of Gardner Economics.
Gardner told the room that, this year, he starts his mornings the same way. “I wake up and ask, ‘what is going on now?’” It was a fitting opener. Over the program, he walked through the national economy, the Seattle metro area, and what it all means closer to home in Renton.
A few highlights stood out. On inflation, Gardner pushed back on claims that the problem is behind us — “poppycock,” he said flatly. He pointed to shelter costs and gaps in government data as reasons to think inflation is still very much with us. On housing, he was just as direct: average monthly house payments in the Seattle area have jumped more than 50%, no county in Washington is affordable for first-time buyers, and mortgage rates around 6% are likely here to stay. “Get used to 6%,” he told the room. Anything lower, he added, would probably mean the economy was in a recession.
For Renton, Gardner noted Boeing’s deep ties to the local economy, around 13,000 direct jobs, and pointed to the region’s diverse economy as a real strength. He said growth is being held back by headwinds in the economy, and the numbers should be higher than they are. Still, he wasn’t down on the area. His message was simple: don’t bet against it.
Gardner gave the room something useful: a clear-eyed look at what’s coming. If you’re a Renton business owner, a future homeowner, or just someone keeping an eye on where things are headed, it was the kind of morning worth showing up for.
Disclosure: Renton Signal, LLC owner, Winter Cashman, attended this event as a representative of TechFox USA, LLC, a separate business also owned by the same individual and a member of the Renton Chamber of Commerce.